Tornado Alley (PROG)

[StephanieVanbryce]

THIS is great__ PPP poll for Daily Kos/SEIU was the most accurate of 2012

by Kos
Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 09:53 AM PST



From Fordham University's Costas Panagopoulos, director of the university's Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy.

"For all the ridicule directed towards pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide vote shares for the two candidates," said Dr. Panagopoulos.

On average, pre-election polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 0.63 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 1.7-point Obama margin in the national popular vote. [...]

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

Ha ha, look at Gallup way at the bottom, even below Rasmussen. But let's focus on the positive—PPP took top honors with a two-way tie for first place. Both their tracking poll and their weekly poll for Daily Kos/SEIU ended up with the same 50-48 margin. The final result? Obama 51.1-48.9—a 2.2-point margin.

PPP is a robo-pollster that doesn't call cell phones, which was supposedly a cardinal sin—particularly when their numbers weren't looking so hot for Obama post-first debate. But there's a reason we've worked with them the past year—because their track record is the best in the biz.

So thanks to PPP for making us look good, and thanks to SEIU for sponsoring our weekly State of the Nation poll for the past two years. It's been an awesome ride.

One last point—YouGov and Ipsos/Reuters were both internet polls. YouGov has now been pretty good two elections in a row. With cell phones becoming a bigger and bigger issue every year, it seems clear that the internet is the future of polling. I'm glad someone is figuring it out.

But let's be clear, you have to go down to number six on the list to get to someone who called cell phones. And Gallup called 50 percent cell phones and they were a laughingstock this cycle.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/07/1158157/-Most-accurate-national-popular-vote-pollsters

Remember .. last time ... was it 2010 or 2008? . . when kos FIRED the polling firm we were using then on dkos? ..He sure knew what he was doing .. ;) . .Of course they don't mention Nate Silver, but he is in a different category altogether .. he was certainly displayed everyday on their morning & midday threads ... .. it just seems like everything went right for us this time ... if ONLY I couldn't have known that it would - back in Jan. or something .... I wouldn't have gotten this extra squiggelily line around my knee cap .. .;)