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Re: CHETRA744 post# 8907

Wednesday, 11/07/2012 7:41:15 PM

Wednesday, November 07, 2012 7:41:15 PM

Post# of 133793

No. Just this president



Expecting anything insightful or analytical from your posts is hopeless. I draw no inferences for UNGS pps from this article because it is a non-reporting POS and not even a minor player in the oil and gas sector. That said, your nonsensical political post needs to be countered with facts no less than any of your other fact-free posts.

MarketBeat
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November 6, 2012, 12:50 PM
What an Obama Win May Mean for Stocks
MarketBeat HOME PAGE »


By Steven Russolillo

Associated PressAnother four years under President Barack Obama may not be such a bad thing for the stock market.

No matter your beliefs, the Dow is up more than 50% since Obama took office during the depths of the financial crisis. Only three other presidents elected since 1900 — Franklin Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower and Bill Clinton – have experienced similar market returns.

All three were re-elected to second terms.

Even though Wall Streeters typically prefer Mitt Romney‘s pro-business, Republican views, it’s hard to ignore the strong run the market has had under Obama.

Anything can happen between now and later tonight when voting closes. Political polls still suggest that decision day could stretch into a long night before an official announcement is made.

Here’s a look at how President Obama would approach some hot-button market issues in his second term, (click here for an earlier MarketBeat post on what a Romney win would mean for the markets):

The Fiscal Cliff: This is a wild card, and likely won’t bode well for investors. Spending cuts and tax increases are in store by year-end unless Congress comes up with some sort of way to kick the can down the road (again) and deal with the issue at a later date.
The big worry is House Republicans have refused to back any revenue increases. President Obama has also said he would veto any extension of upper-income tax cuts.

A standstill in discussions could lead to another rancorous situation similar to the one that transpired last year during the debt-ceiling debacle. Some investors are preparing for the worst, noting the stakes are higher now and the outcome could potentially be more damaging.

“The volatility that we saw from the debt-ceiling is minuscule compared to what we may see from this,” Daniel Genter, chief executive at RNC Genter Capital Management, which oversees $4.3 billion in assets, told MarketBeat.

Stocks swooned last summer; at one point the Dow swung 400 points during four straight sessions, the first time that ever happened.

Citigroup C -6.29%warned in August that going over the fiscal cliff could lead to substantial declines in earnings and economic activity. That could translate to a 15% to 20% drop in stock prices, the firm cautioned.

Likely outcome: Expect volatility to increase through year-end and into 2013.

The Fed: Anyone who has been following the markets over the last few years knows how important Fed policy has been to the direction of everything from stocks to bonds, oil, gold and other assets. From record-low interest-rate policies to multiple rounds of quantitative easing, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been about as dovish as it comes enacting policies to jumpstart the economy.

Bernanke’s term is up in 2014 and it’s unclear whether he will return for another term. Obama would be more likely to influence Bernanke to stay as opposed to Romney, who has already said he wouldn’t reappoint Bernanke.

If Bernanke were to step down, Obama would likely push for someone who shares similar views as the current chairman and would potentially be willing to extend current policies.

Likely outcome: Good for so-called risky assets, like stocks. Bad for the dollar.

Taxes: Obama has argued for federal spending on education and new energy sources, while also criticizing Romney’s approach of essentially slashing taxes for the wealthy and curtailing regulations.

For investors, both dividend and capital gains taxes are expected to head higher under four more years of Obama when compared to a potential Romney presidency.

Likely outcome: Bad for stocks, at least in the short term.

Historical Trends: Despite the fact that Wall Street tends to prefer Republican candidates, the stock market historically has performed better under Democratic presidents.

Since 1900, the Dow has averaged a 7.8% annual gain under Democratic presidents, compared with a 3% annual gain under Republicans, WSJ reported earlier this year.

To be sure, the Dow is up more than 7% this year, on pace for a fourth straight year of gains. Whether that trend can continue for another four years may be difficult no matter who gets elected.

For now, though, economic growth appears to be improving, the labor market is starting to gain some steam and the housing recovery has been slowly been gaining traction all year.

Likely outcome: It’s hard to ignore with history; win for stocks.

Sectors: Half of the S&P 500's 10 large-cap sectors have outperformed the broad market since Obama took office, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Leading the way has been consumer discretionary stocks, followed by telecom, industrials, health care and technology.

Consumer staples are roughly in line with the broad market’s performances, while utilities, energy, materials and financials have lagged during Obama’s tenure. Financials have been the worst performers, with Citigroup and Bank of America BAC -7.14%among the worst-performing S&P 500 stocks since the previous election.

Likely outcome: Health care and hospital stocks would likely benefit under four more years of Obama as health care reforms are likely to be preserved. Stocks of high-end retailers may suffer because of expectations of higher taxes on the wealthy.

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