EPEX- I ran some #s using the PV 10 values in their 10K.
The after tax PV10 for year end was $217 million. That is based on $6.14 nat gas for all future years, which REALLY understates the value of reserves in the real world.
Assuming an average price of $12.28, the PV 10 increases to $468 mil or $28.36/share. I also increased estimated production and development costs by 20% and tripled estimated income taxes to get that number. Even figuring $10 nat gas, the PV 10 value came in at $366 mil, which is under the current market cap.
Also note that reserves increased by 39% last year and another substantial increase is expected this year as well, so those #s will only grow larger.
Bottom line- I cringed and bought some more this morning. At near $20, this one appears too cheap and should start seeing strength as "old man winter" is coming soon.
