Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[CaptWhizbang]

Yes, investors are uneasy. They always are going into the quarter reports. I believe CPST must meet projections to get things going again with an upward move. But a miss won't be "make or break" for me or CPST.

I can't predict what the quarter report will be, but my guess is, at least, bottom line numbers will continue to improve and the CPST will continue to grow. Baring the fear and impatience of others with their immediate profits, I remain very confident and patient.

{Each quarter that passes without profitability increases the risk that something may go wrong - warranty problems, Greenevironment, or something else}

I don't make that connection with profitability. Something can always go wrong, no matter what the situation of any company. A quick look at the current quarter reportings of the biggest companies in the market show many are having problems for one reason or another.

{only selling 25 M of product}

Revenues last quarter of Capstone Turbine notched $28.8 million; the second highest in its history.

Product revenue was up 13% year over year.

Fiscal 2012 had record revenue of $109.4 Million, up 34% over 2011, with consecutive quarterly revenue growth for the last 21 quarters.

Gross margins, @ 5%, were positive, and margins were positive for all 4 quarters in 2012, and positive in 7 of the last 8 quarters.

{lossing nearly 8 M each Q.}

Net loss was down 51% from the previous year, and $500,000 less than last quarter.

Operating expenses were $7M 1Q compared to previous year of $12.3 M.

{we should be hitting 35 M of product each Q to get rid of the backlog}

Much here depends on the clients' requested delivery dates among other market factors. I don't believe that simply dividing the backlog by 4 is a fair estimate. The analysts are targeting 32M this quarter, The backlog is ever increasing which should translate to more production and shipping which increased last quarter.

{Another tranche may be put to this investor within the next 6 mos}

It took 4 years to complete the Shelf Offering from 2008. 68,440,027 shares remain unsold from 2008 warrant issue and remained with CPST.

The warrants you refer to is a new deal requiring the holder to exercize their warrants at $1.26 obtain from the 2008 shelf offering. A profitable deal for CPST at today's pps and cleans up the books as well.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=120708&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2lyLmludC53ZXN0bGF3YnVzaW5lc3MuY29tL2RvY3VtZW50L3YxLzAwMDExMDQ2NTktMTItMDY0MTkyL3htbA%3d%3d

CPST report in 1Q that it had $45.1 Million in cash, and cash burn was $4.9 Million last quarter and is projected to decrease over the remainder of the year. For this reason I don't see a new secondary anytime soon.

Shorting: I would not expect an increase in pps with the large decrease in Short numbers. There are still 42.5 Million of them to put downward pressure on the pps.

Also a lot of selling is precisely how the buy to cover works. Shorters place their large "buys" below the bid, and the MMs then swing to the bid side to pick them up. The order registers as a sell order, but is actually a buy to cover. That way the shorters don't have to "buy" at the higher ask.

I do the same thing when I am trying to buy in at a lower price, I place my order well below the bid price and if the size is large enough, the MMs will swing down to pick them up and make their $, and at the same time, drive the pps down, and it looks like selling.

Good Luck to All.