Dolphin,
Most longs understand what is going on with the company. The time may be finally here where Apple is so big that its growth rate will start to slow. That still doesn't mean that a company with a PE of 13, probably around 125 dollars per share in the bank and a dividend that will probably grow over the next couple of years won't still be a good investment and will still grow and continue to appreciate in price. It probably won't perform the same way it has over the past 10 years but I think it will still appreciate in price from here.
Just to be factual here, the company doesn't give guidance more than 1 quarter out so the company didn't lower its guidance. If you listened to the CC, you would know that Apple guided to 52 billion in revenue for the quarter and $11.75 per share in earnings. The margin on Apple products is going down this quarter for several reasons, most of which is that they are in the midst of several product transitions that cost dollars at the margins. I would bet that most companies would kill to have the decreased margins that Apple is guiding to. But the other reason for the lower margins is the product mix with the iPad mini bringing the average down. And for the record, the white iPad mini wifi version is already backordered so there does seem to be a decent demand for the product right now.
To put Apple's first quarter of its fiscal year in perspective, Apple will have guided to more revenue and earnings in this one quarter than Google did all of last year if I have done my math correctly. Apple will have guided to about the same revenue and more earnings that the past 3 quarters reported by MSFT.
The "miss" that Apple reported was basically in line with what the analysts were guesstimating to(without charges related to currency issues, Apple most likely would have met the analysts estimates). They did beat their own numbers quite handily which they usually do. If they sandbagged their 4th quarter like they did their present quarter, you could easily make the guess that Apple will have more than 55 billion in revenues and probably somewhere north of $13 dollars a share in earnings and will probably end the year with close to $150 billion in cash and short term assets. But when you are that big, growth will eventually start to slow. Doesn't mean that Apple isn't a good and valuable company or that its stock price won't continue to appreciate, but it will mean that returns will probably slow down. To what degree, it will remain to be seen.
So I think this long understands the company pretty well, as do most longs. Now maybe you are right looking at your chart and saying that things look negative in the short term and if you can make money off of it, more power to you. I am not a chartist but I am sure that some can make a good argument for this and be right. But fundamentally, Apple as a company remains strong. Don't confuse share price with company performance. I think most TA people would agree that the two don't go hand in hand.
AI
