Discussion concerning FLDs: I'm concerned about what I'm seeing. Don't trust them. Sometimes they tell us meaningful information and sometimes they don't--and I highly dislike any system that delivers mixed information because then it falls into the category of flipping pennies. I see nothing about the market or its behavior, nothing about cycles or their interaction which would compell FLDs being a scientific approach to predicting market behavior. The only thing I see that they measure is momentum, so that when an FLD is crossed, it suggests the momentum of the market is in a certain direction and likely to continue for a certain length of time. Sometimes the market overshoots and sometimes it undershoots, and sometimes the FLDs don't get crossed and the market does what it wants to do anyway.
The part that concerns me most is when the analyst begins reading the FLDs as if they were tea leaves, interpreting this and that, and imagining he or she understands what is going to happen based on the interpretation. Again sometimes this does work--but sometimes it doesn't, and so does flipping a penny to see whether it lands heads or tails. What concerns me even more is when the analyst has a preconception of what the market is going to do (bullish or bearish) and then focuses in on specific details of FLDs to prove the point of view. What I have noticed is that there is a tendency to focus in on these details when it suits the bias and to ignore the same details when it doesn't suit the favored hypothesis.
Yes, this is all designed to encourage friendly discussion of the Hurst hypothesis. It is a hypothesis that I buy, but I just don't grasp at this point the compelling forces that would make FLDs a reliable market signal.
Don't get me wrong. I have seen dozens of times where the reading has been absolutely dead on--dead on. No question. Absolutely. However, I have seen other situations like the current one where the signals and the interpretations have been weak at best. No offense. I want to get to the bottom of this issue.
Questions:
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What is the logic behind FLDs? Is it just a momentum signal?
What is the accuracy rate of FLDs? Really. Statistically.
I'm looking for a just-the-facts discussion. No hurt feelings or religious blind belief in Mr. Hurst--no offense to this technical genius.
Thanks in advance!
BBelt
AI
