Biotech Values

[DonShimoda]

ARIA has gone up....a lot. So, it doesn't surprise me that a few folks here think it's overvalued. I disagree but that's what makes a market.

Three years ago, when the stock was trading at $2.62, I made the following post on this board:

"I was valuing AP534 primarily as a 2/3 line treatment option focused primarily on pts with the T315I mutation. I now believe we are looking at much greater upside with a clear path to regulatory approval for not only pts with mutations but also those who have failed at least 2 other TKI's. As was pointed out in today's presentation, pts are now typically on gleevec for 12 to 18 months before moving to 2nd line treatment options. Over time this time-frame will become compressed and with better testing pts will move to the AP534 option much faster. This, in combination with an increasing patient population in maintenance mode, leads me to conclude that I may have been underestimating AP534's potential."

Today the FDA accepted ponatinib's (AP534) NDA and granted accelerated approval. I believe it will receive a broad 2nd-line label before its March 27, 2013 PDUFA date. fwiw, I don't think ponatinib, let alone 113, is "baked" into the current $22 price. Today, even the much respected Rachel McMinn has a $30 price target on the stock :)