I probably have no business commenting,
but I was only referring to the completion of the H&Ss pattern.
Whether it's reflective of some larger market motion(s) renders it's predictive validity limited.
Nevertheless, if the IBB is the thing, and it really bottoms a little lower(say high 133s), then Ariad should bottom somewhere in the high to mid 20s.
But remember, this is pure tech spec(with all of it's attendant limitations).
Since I put more weight on the fundamental value of Ariad(which is why I'm already buying), I "believe" there's a good chance we won't see a 20s low.
From what I've heard, the Oppenheimer call is rather shortsighted(particularly regarding 113). If other institutions agree, this selloff may be over very soon.
Then of course, there's always the possibility of some positive news or counter (positive) revaluation that may turn this around in a hurry.
It's a crapshot!
