Viking,
Agree with everything you're saying about declining margins, declining rate of revenue growth as fish and cattle farms approach capacity, and more shares. Amazing that even with the above, can reasonably project 50% eps growth.
To Swede's more optimistic outlook, I'd agree that there are important upside probabilities (maybe offset by other downsides; maybe not. These upsides include:
As the fish and cattle farms approach capacities, the distribution network and retail establishments will be in the earlier, heavier growth phase. Also, restaurants may be expanding a a much greater overall rate than the company as a whole. This will have a very strong influence on margins for cattle, fish and HU. Next, as the fish and cattle farms approach capacity, their percentage increase in sales revenue will decline, but the newer ones will be ramping at the highest rate, as percent equity increases from 25% to 50%, increasing profit from those farms 100% with no sales volume increases. And finally, if the bond deal happens, and/or financing is done at a much higher pps, then the newer, consequent investment -- perhaps in a very large retail network -- will add eps proportionately higher than the company overall, and we may not get to 100M shares, at least not in 2013.
AI
