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Re: RealDutch post# 21264

Monday, 10/22/2012 1:21:19 PM

Monday, October 22, 2012 1:21:19 PM

Post# of 163718


I don't disagree with your conclusions, in general.

But there are still important numbers we don't know:

1) Even if the new ff and cf construction pace is maintained, that portion of revenue and income would be 0%; it may well increase, but it does not have the built in increase that fish and beef sales have.

2) As a larger percent of FF are producing at capacity, and 75% owned, the later year growth will necessarily decline percentage wise. (from phenomenally good to good).

3) Huge revenue growth is likely in WSPS and retail, as they start from low bases. But we don't know the margins. In any case, the increase will be less 2014 over 2013 percentage wise, and much less 2015 over 2014.

4) Share count; always a fly in the ointment up to now.

5) Wild cards. The entire restaurant business came as a surprise. There may be more upside surprises. Or, there may be downside surprises; e.g., contamination in a FF, disease at a CF, unforeseen competition in fertilizer, etc.

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