It sounds to me like Berger is just managing expectations in order to ensure a successful launch. Check out slide 106. 300 patients are already diagnosed with the T315I mutation and are expected to switch therapies. How many of these will move to ponatinib? My guess is all of them.
Additionally, if they just get 10% of the remaining 2200 projected resistant and intolerant patients eligible in the US in 2013, they'll hit their numbers. To put this in context, currently "other" is getting 10% in 2/3 line. So, the bar is pretty low, lol.
Also, EU approval is anticipated mid-2013. Considering that 11% of the 3800 EU patients resistant to current therapies likely have the T315I mutation, I would assume a quick uptake in this patient population but as far as i can tell no revenue is factored into the $50mm number.
