Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[treit2002]

Do you have an estimate for the stock price at the end of this year 2012 and the next 2013?

Not really; there are too many variables that have a potentially gigantic effect on the p/e multiple. Kind of interesting that the actual financial performance of the company is the most predictable, yet least significant determinant of estimated share price.

That said, EOY 2012 will not see the FN listing and the supply and demand for the shares will be influenced by an unknown number of financing shares still being sold. Best guess: $.50 - $1.20.

EOY 2013 is much more interesting. There will be mega shifts in both company operations/financial results and underlying influences to market perception/p/e multiple:

1) The company will have all major aspects of its model in place: wholesale, distribution, import export, retail/restaurant.
2) Revenues will likely double 2012, with eps $1.00+.
3) The company will be cash flow positive; there will be no more equity financing
4) We'll trade in Sweden; possibly dual listed on AMEX and uplisted in Sweden from FN
5) There may have been new major investments financed with a bond offering, and/or final equity financing at an unknown price per share (possibly enough to justify immediately accretive earnings per share)
6) We'll be another 14 months removed from the stain on Chicoms
7) The dividends will be well established
8) CF1 will have Dragonhead status, and a spin out may be in process, or otherwise credible.

So, the p/e multiple then could be anywhere from 1.5x to 10x. Best guess, then: $1.50 to $12, assuming the company continues to execute.

I'm reluctant to get anywhere near PEG talk, but in 2014, when the 5 year growth rate might be more like 20%, could justify even substantially higher prices.