Saturday, October 20, 2012 11:29:17 AM
It has been 13 months since the enrollment was completed. If you look at this chart for the range of control arm
MOS that I had previously posted you see that the mean is 9.8 months with a standard deviation of 1.3 months.
This suggests the most probable value for the control arm MOS is in the range from 8.5 to 11.1 months. Assuming
that the 15 months for the treatment arm is correct, then currently the treatment arm is probably exceeding the
control arm MOS in the range of 35% to 76%. If the treatment arm MOS were to be reached in January with a
value of 18 months then the treatment arm MOS would be exceeding the control arm MOS in the range of 62% to 112%.
So a doubling of MOS is still possible in this scenario. RRdog do you have an update on your estimate?
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