Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

The problem with counting from 9/22 is that 9/22 may not be the last 5-week low being so close to the previous 2.5-week low on 9/15. OK, maybe the hurricane blew the cycles around, but maybe it didn't, and there is no way we can know. So pretending to know leads to speculation.

Another interpretation of the hurricane phenomenon is that the fear gave the first 1.25-week cycle out of the 2.5-week low on 9/15 increased amplitude. Then the market tried to snap back but couldn't muster the strength against the 5-week cycle pointing down, and then put in a 5-week low around 9/29. This actually conforms to market behavior, because if the 5-week had bottomed on 9/22, we would expect to see the market climb more directly as it did on 9/29. In this scenario, then, the last 1.25-week cycle completed last Thursday, and the next 2.5-week low is due in a few trading days. If this view is correct, we are looking at an extremely bearish market with a miserable month ahead.

Only market action will verify which interpretation is correct.

Good technique creates good luck!

BBelt