Andrew,
Exactly right.
People post as if Solomon can walk into a bank, and walk out with $15M, no questions asked; and then the shares will be $5, simple as that.
Others say the shares are already worth $34 a share, for the simple reason that earnings growth can be projected at very high levels.
I'm as bullish as anyone with a clear head, but the catalysts, the milestones that need to be met to raise the share price are "ifs," not "whens." They have to get the bond deal to tick that one off; it is not certain. Likewise, pretty much all the milestones.
You can't just assume Leonie's will have 50 restaurants in 2013, or that PF2 will deliver 28 billion flies. These are targets. FN listing is an ambition; also cattle sales; the abattoir has to be built; WSPS sales have to actually happen. Retail hasn't even started, etc., etc.
The company will not meet all their goals, and certainly not on time. But the history is that they've met almost all, and even some that weren't pre-announced.
It's obvious that announced targets -- a dual listed, cash flow positive company with cash in the bank earning $1.50+ a share in 2014, planning Asian exchange listed spin outs will be worth a lot.
But it's also obvious that there are lots of exigencies in business, on the financing, regulatory, and operational sides. Clearly, the marketplace knows less than we do about the targets, and would believe them far less if they knew. That's why they actually have to happen, and to establish a longer history available to a larger, more important audience.
