Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Well, that’s what makes a market! There’s a huge disparity between your 30% chance of success and my <3%, and there’s a similarly wide range of viewpoints on Twitter.

I do think the multiple phase-3 Bapineuzuamb failures have some relevance to handicapping the prospects for Solanezumab. One can argue with my equating the 4 Bapi failures to 1.5 Solanezumab failures (perhaps they should count as only 1.0 or even 0.5 failures); however, to dismiss the Bapi failures entirely, as you are doing, strikes me as reckless. Further, you seem oblivious to the point that the base rate of success in these kinds of trials is very low.

Good luck with your LLY position.