Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Novartis CEO Says Big M&A Unlikely

[The header is a bit silly insofar as no Big Pharma CEO reveals that a big merger or acquisition is in the cards until it has been formally announced. However, in NVS’ case, a big M&A deal is indeed unlikely, IMO, unless the marriage partner is Roche, and so far Roche has rejected the idea. Regarding Diovan, NVS’ biggest-selling drug that went off-patent in the US two weeks ago, NVS has been planning for generic competition for at least four years (see 2008 article in #msg-34492678); however, some of the drugs intended to pick up the slack, such as Tekturna/Rasilez, have not panned out, which will make it hard for NVS to grow or even maintain revenue during the next year or two.]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/07/us-novaris-ceo-idUSBRE89606A20121007

›Oct 7, 2012 6:59am EDT

ZURICH (Reuters) - Novartis is keen to maintain its dividend and is looking to boost growth via mid-sized acquisitions, though big deals are unlikely, the Swiss drugmaker's chief executive said in a newspaper interview on Sunday.

Like many of its rivals, Novartis is struggling to grow in the face of patent expiries on key drugs, particularly Diovan for high blood pressure. It is relying on new products, like multiple sclerosis pill Gilenya, to fill the gap.

In 2010, Novartis made headlines when it wrapped up its buyout of the remainder of U.S. eyecare group Alcon for $12.9 billion. The Basel-based firm in May agreed to buy Fougera Pharmaceuticals, a maker of generic dermatology products, for $1.53 billion in cash.

"Defending the dividend is a priority," CEO Joe Jimenez told the SonntagsZeitung. "We want to stick with a good dividend yield in the future."

Novartis paid a dividend of 2.25 Swiss francs a share last year, a yield of 3.9 percent.

"Then we want to conduct medium-sizes acquisitions to boost our growth," he also said. "In the foreseeable future we're most probably not going to do any mega takeovers."

Novartis sees annual revenues of $5.6 billion from Diovan, Jimenez said, and the drug's loss of exclusivity in Europe and the United states meant the firm would face three "very challenging quarters".

No new cost-control programme would be announced, though some ad-hoc savings could be made over time, Jimenez said, as other treatments coming on line would help make up for the fall: "Our sales should rise markedly in the second-half of 2013."

For the third quarter, currency effects would shave 3-4 percent off operating income, he said, reiterating what he said at the time of the firm's first-half results in July.

At the time, Novartis confirmed its full-year outlook for net sales in constant currencies to meet those of 2011 [i.e. 0% year-over-year growth].

Although he declined to comment on the third quarter, Jimenez said: "As I said at the presentation of the half-year figures: We're on course."

Cancer is an increasingly important therapeutic area for Novartis, which faces stiff competition in the field from cross-town rival Roche Holding AG, the world leader in oncology and in which it holds a third of the shares. [This is a constant source of misstatement in the mainstream press. In fact, NVS owns approximately 1/3 of Roche’s voting shares, but this amounts to only about 6% of Roche’s overall shares.]

"We're holding on to our stake, since it's a strategic decision [i.e. to pressure Roche for a merger] and so far we've done well with it," he said. "Should Roche want to raise equity, we'd have to agree with that."‹