Viking.
This is a good question, tough to answer. My whole point about PEG is not that it isn't a number, a single valuation metric. Of course it is, but it doesn't apply to SIAF now for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is risk. SIAF is not a $34 stock.
The corollary is that free cash flow analysis is another equally valid valuation method which would peg (forgive the pun) SIAF at 0. This is equally inapplicable.
But SIAF is on a trajectory to have value recognized, as it executes. PEG can become a much more relevant measure with several years of meaningful growth above $100M revenues, and many more projected, and once the company is listed on a proper exchange with institutional interest.
It won't be there in May of 2014, imo, but will be on it's way. I agree with RD that the spin outs lend a huge boost to recognition of value. My complete guess is that PEG becomes more relevant in 2016 or so, but that the projected 3 - 5 year growth rate then will be in the 20% - 25% range. If it's still projected to grow 50% - 100% in the 2017 - 2021 years, watch out.
So, where on the trajectory will they be in May, 2014? Assuming the a dual listing, $1.00+ earnings, I would also go with "B."
Could easily be "C" if they've done the bond deal; graduated to a more senior Sweden exchange; attracted institutional and analyst interest; and pulled off the first spin out, putting $37.5M in the hands of both the corporate cash coffers and the shareholders.
Like to keep in mind that if the answer turns out to be A; say p/e of 3, that's still a 400% gain.
That's a sobering reminder that there's a lot of work and very major milestones to accomplish. They won't get them all done on time. But if history is a guide, they will get them done, with financials mostly on track.
It's also a reminder that there's very little risk in this company IF they execute even remotely to plan, and are on the up and up. The visit helps shore up the last thought. So, too, will be cash flowing.
AI
