Longwei Petroleum (fka LPIH)

[rru2s]

I tend to get preoccupied with examining the last 3 or 5 days price movement, so I took a step back and looked at the bigger picture over the last few months. Here's what the LPH chart for the last 6 months looks like for trending. Please comment and offer alternate opinions:

we are on a steady uptrend sawtooth pattern of higher lows that began at the lowest close of the year on 6/1 ($1.04), then higher low 6/12 ($1.10), 6/22 ($1.16), 7/31 ($1.23), 8/8 ($1.29), 8/24 ($1.38), 9/12 ($1.44). The 9/21 closing price of $1.21 was caused by an outlier, a single sell of a large block by an institution most likely, so it doesn't fit into the chart pattern as no other low priced sales preceeded or followed it. Next higher lows were 9/24 ($1.47), and then 9/26 ($1.49). Now we come to the date of the Huajie deal closing and the price took a quantum leap, which resets all of the chart metrics because it resets the presumed forward EPS by 25 percent (0.61 to 0.80 for TTM EPS by 6/30/2013). So right now I would expect the next higher low to be about 25% higher than $1.47 to $1.49, or roughly $1.85. But the effect of a reset in fundamentals takes the market a few days to several weeks to digest and adjust. The short-term memory right now is that LPH just bumped incrementally, which causes a damping effect for 3 to 10 days, then the uptrend should resume with the next baseline somewhere near the expected $1.80 to $1.85. The next sawtooth upwards after the market finishes reacting will then spike above $1.85. I expect the price to end up this year with a high of year around $2.15 and a low during December of around $1.90.