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Saturday, September 29, 2012 1:38:23 PM
I think the foundation misses the mark a bit - IMO P2O was not about a buyout in the beginning, but may well be now (how to explain acquisitions of Pak-it and Javaco when the purpose is to highlight P2O?)
As to buyout offers: the numbers mentioned might work If Google were the suitor, but not Waste Management. @ $7, that would place a roughly $630M price tag on JBII, a premium I think Waste Management is unprepared to pay (based on what's been accomplished so far). Likewise, 1/10 success rates are fine for the federal government, but IMO would not be tolerated very long in the private marketplace. The notion of Waste Management taking a stake in JBII is very rational, and in fact I woildn't be surprised to see a JV announced with WM sometime in 2013, in light of recent management changes within JBII.
Higher buyout prices IMO would only follow if P2O establishes a year or two of operational history showing very good margins and near exponential growth in revenues. Assuming there are 100M shares out by next year, a $20 offer puts a $2B market cap on JBII; I could only see that if they had annual fuel sales at or exceeding $150M, something I don't think we'll see for many years (if at all).
For obvious self-serving reasons, I'll be rooting for your version here - by all means continue to epiphanize. It helps to soften the shock of share price weeks like the last one.
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