Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[porkchop11]

Comment on af's "article" (sorry if already posted):

Adam,
One correction, the trial was unblinded in May 2012 according to Sept 10 conference call.
I agree that many patients are censored and that could be a concern, but I believe the censored patients are only an issue in the 3mg arm, as the 1mg arm appears to have 14/19 total censored patients at 9 months or longer and at least 7 of those at 12 months or longer. The 3mg is less clear with 15/21 at longer than 6 months and 9 of those at possibly longer than 9 months. Calculations were done using cumulative overall survival points at each time interval and patients at risk data, so room for variations.
Of course with the recent announcement, this complicates which arm is affected and how that impacts censored patients. The entire trial has been conducted very poorly, but it is possible that they can salvage some MOS signal. According to management, the patient group assignments are correct (from PR) and thus their statement on more than half of both bavi arms still alive should have some merit.

(Edited by author 11 hours ago)

JeffSampson1 and 4 more liked this Like Reply

ryan10 hours agoin reply to ryan

One last addition.. not sure why you are showing a Progression Free Survival graph. We should use the Kaplan Meier overall survival graph to estimate censored patients as the most recent update from the trial and has data out to 18 months. Also, is that 19% censor rate for Ph III that was noted after trials have been completed? Remember these were interim results and censored pt. count can still decline from here.

Nice job Ryan! :0

imo.

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