Praveen,
I would respectfully disagree with you that the odds are very likely that Obama will win re-election. Actually, I think that Romney is slightly more likely to win re-election. Given that I don't feel Obama has succeeded in anything he has attempted, that is a little disappointing to me.
As for Fisher's analysis, that assumes that Republican and Democrat Presidents are fungible. There has been no President anything like Obama. So, I'm actually expecting Romney to win by a large margin.
But if we get close to the election, if it does appear that Obama will win, I expect the market to tank. The problem for investors, will be to find any possible place to hide. I don't see such a place. Almost all Western democracies have adopted socialist policies, and their economies are in decline. A possible approach is to invest in developing nations that are still more heavily into developing capitalism. And that's probably where I'll be putting my money, if I decide that I'm in error about the election.
Of course, I think you are a Chicagoean (I'm actually a native of Chicago, but moved away as an infant) and you may well hold a different viewpoint, and that's okay with me. I appreciate your view and opinion.
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