Radian Group (RDN)

[mrholty]

Don't disagree with that story but we see a slowly improving default picture, we see improved new sales numbers.

To me your statement tells me one of a few things.

1. RDN under-reserved more than its competitors who have fallen by the wayside and this will eventually catch them. I find this hard to believe as I doubt the states insurance boards would not be on this. If it was true the improving market may hide this as the recovery will dampen it. The only way to check for this will be underperformance vs their peers going forward. Something to watch for sure.
2. The entire housing market takes another correction. If so I have bigger issues to worry about. Banks are more levered than these guys and were the canary before the insurance guys.
3. General economic slowdown. - Again I have other worries.

Simply I think the market is ovestating the downside risk here.