China's Auto Sales Problem ( I touched on yesterday )
Analysis: Problems associated with increasing automobile sales in ChinaBy Carmen Lee From Gasgoo.com August 28, 2012
Gasgoo.com (Shanghai) - The rapid pace with which the automotive market in China has developed has allowed many in the country to enjoy the convenience and pleasure of owning and driving their own personal automobile. However, that is not to say the majority of the country has access to their own car. Following increasing rates of congestion and worsening air pollution, several major cities in China have implemented policies aimed at curbing automobile sales. Looking at the future of the market, it is becoming harder and harder to maintain an optimistic attitude.
China currently has a population of 1.3 billion people. However, only one-third of the country is habitable. Furthermore, over 55 percent of the country's natural resources are being used, with that amount continuing to increase. Despite the enormous demand for automobiles in the country, prospective buyers have had to face the reality of limited resources, which has prevented many from purchasing the car of their dreams.
In order to better understand the future direction of the Chinese automobile market, Gasgoo.com (Chinese) conducted a weeklong survey, inviting 1,609 experts from across the industry to give their opinions.
In the first question of the survey, participants were asked what they felt the most severe consequence would be if the number of vehicles on China's roads reaches 300 million over the next decade, which is a reasonable estimate. 46 percent of respondents answered that increased traffic congestion rates would be the hardest effect to tolerate. Meanwhile, 30 percent said that strain on natural resources would be the hardest to bear consequence; while 19 percent answered that poor air quality would be the most intolerable result.
Packed streets and atrocious traffic have already become a common sight in many major Chinese cities, with several metropolitan roads reporting average speeds of less than 20 km/h. This phenomenon has already spread to third- and fourth-tier cities. Several road construction projects have been implemented in order to help resolve the issue. However, limited natural resources and manpower have made the problems even more apparent. Unable to build the necessary infrastructure in time, many cities have adopted policies aimed at restricting vehicle purchases in order to reduce congestion levels.
Chinese roads were already under a lot of pressure when the total number of vehicles in the country reached 100 million. If the number of automobiles continues to increase by 20 million units each year, the total amount will hit 300 million vehicles in ten years. The sheer number of vehicles is placing an increasingly heavy burden on existing city roads. With limited land and other resources, city officials and planners have had their hands full.
It is not only roads which need to be constructed, but parking spaces and other infrastructure, as well. According to international studies, a ratio of 1.3 parking spaces per automobile is enough to comfortably accommodate parking needs in most cities. However, China is far from those ideal numbers. The southern city of Guangzhou, which has recently implemented a lottery style system for new registration plates, is reported to have only 0.3 parking spaces available per vehicle. Given its limited space, for the city to build new spaces is incredibly difficult. In his book Plan B 4.0, award winning environmental analyst Lester R. Brown estimates that an average American automobile requires 0.07 hectares of road and parking space. Following this logic, 50,000 vehicles need about a football stadium worth of asphalt. Flat land, which is best used for farmland, is the preferred choice of road builders, and is often used for roads and parking spaces. While that model is acceptable in the US, in a country where flat land is incredibly limited, such as China, it is unsustainable.
I can think of a quick and inexpensive fix for the 19%. I believe that could equate to HLNT royalty $$$$$$$$$$$$$. IMO
