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Sunday, October 02, 2005 12:50:17 AM
I think WBMW hit on some very important points, but I will add to and emphasize a few things...
Intel has Pentium -D in very high volume production. If you doubt this go down to your local computer retailer and check it out. The Pentium -D die size is about double prescott. Intel could have easily slowed down the conversion to Pentium -D, or even Pentium 6xx series (2M cache) if they knew they had a yield problem. If defect densities are high (which causes low yields) then the last thing they would do is convert to larger die sizes which amplify high defect densities. Intel has been very successful ramping large die into volume production while AMD has not. This indicates to me that Intel has much lower defect densities. On smaller die defect densities are not that important and the yield difference will not be that great, regardless of defect densities. This is why AMD has stuck with smaller die size products.
The goal is to run at full capacity, while meeting market demand, and Intel can modulate this by modulating the mix to dual core or 6xx series. It does sound like they miscalculated the demand... if they miss revenue then you could call that a miscalculation of yields, but there is no indication that is the case. As I understand the "chipset shortages" they are in both mobile and low end desktop. I do think laptop demand has grown faster than Intel anticipated as they have stated this. I also think they are trying to drive desktop chipsets upstream so they can EOL the older, and cheaper, chipsets.
In terms of SOI claims, do you even know what Intel has said on the subject? Regarding DSL, do you really know the difference between AMD and Intel strained silicon processing?
I don't think what you are pointing to indicates anything related to "technical mumbo jumbo"... just some basic decisions and also some market direction changes. When we see the final Q3 revenue numbers for INTC and AMD we will know more.
Again, to reiterate a point from WBMW, Intel is supplying about 85% of the CPU market with 3 full factories (one of which is a smaller development factory) while AMD is supplying the remaining 15% with one full factory. The math I would do on that would say Intel is getting quite a bit more out of each factory than AMD is. Also, note that Intel builds a few things besides CPU's in those three factories...
--Alan
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