Re: When I look at the number of fabs INTC has and try to reconcile that with the shortages (yes I know INTC says chipsets are produced on older processes)
If you realize what you just said parenthetically, then it should not be a surprise to you how Intel can own so many fabs and still be capacity constrained.
Re: I seem to remember Andy saying in the MidQ that INTC was running at full capacity and had less inventory than they wanted. Again, another red flag.
You call it a red flag when demand exceeds supply?? I'd call it a good chance of beating expectations. So far, INTC has exceeded their revenue guidance for the past 3 years. It's no longer a surprise to analysts, either. In fact, they expect it.
Re: On the other side of things it seems pretty apparent that since the "E" stepping AMD has enjoyed much better bin splits and yields.
Relative to what? AMD doesn't manufacture Opterons on Intel's process, so how can you compare something like bin splits?? As for yields, AMD only has to supply 15-20% of the CPU market with one fab. Intel has to supply 80-85% of the CPU market with 3 fabs. Granted that Intel's are 300mm, but one would expect Intel's bulk process to have better yields than AMD's SOI process to begin with.
Re: I'm saying this primarily because of the lack of supply problems. Again, I am aware of the latest Asian supply problems, but since no one else is having these problems they're probably localized. From my point of view AMD is having much less of a problem supplying markets than I had expected. And no it's not because of a lack of demand.
You still don't fully appreciate the world's preference for Intel chips. The Intel brand carries a $50B equity through the last couple decades of some of the industries best marketing and promotions. Centrino practically became a success overnight due to Intel's marketing brilliance, while AMD can barely market a free burger to a hungry transient. That's why Intel chips sell better than AMD, and currently why AMD isn't feeling as much demand pressure. This is the concerning the broad market, by the way, such as desktops where Intel's solution is hardly perceived as inferior by the vast majority of the world. AMD is simply selling what the market will bear at current pricing, maximizing ASPs, rather than volumes.
Re: All in all I've concluded that SOI and DSL are worth a lot more than INTC claims.
It's an incorrect conclusion from a technical misunderstanding of the facts, as you yourself already admit. Great argument, by the way, to start by explaining how you are not a technical expect, then conclude by saying you've analysed the technical details and know exactly what to think. Bravo.
AI
