Re: INTC isn't going to disappear from the planet next year
If you can admit that, then you have sure chosen a poor metaphor when describing a pig going to slaughter.
Re: What you seems incomprehensible to you is that once AMD gets to 25 to 30% of the market all sorts of things change. At that point INTC looses control of pricing and has to follow AMD with price cuts down to AMD's ASPs. That alone would be disastrous for INTC earnings, but to counter the effects of reduced revenues INTC is then forced to start closing fabs and laying off personnel to try and get costs in line with revenues.
And what makes you so sure? What kind of magic happens at the 25-30% MSS area? AMD climbed as high as 22% during one of their quarters in 2001, IIRC. What followed shortly thereafter was the ramp of Pentium 4, which brought AMD from their high prospectives down to a "sea of red" (as you call it). Gee, if they had only gained 3 extra points of market share, things would have been much different... is that would you're saying??
Re: INTC is used to operating in what might be called the Cadillac mode of operation with too many people and levels of management.
My advice is to steer clear of metaphors in future posts. They either make no sense, or they are completely misplaced.
Re: The way I see it in 06 is that AMD continues the HP model with more and more INTC only clients slowly adding AMD product lines. Even Dell eventually is going to be forced to face the music.
And what makes 2006 different from 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005, and all the other years when you or another 'Droid was predicting this? Is AMD going to continue to lead with a huge gap in performance? I think not. A much lower power part? Not after Woodcrest launches. A much lower price system? Well, that I can believe, but it's never helped AMD in the past....
