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Sunday, September 09, 2012 9:30:52 AM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/854261-looks-like-iron-ore-is-back-in-business?source=email_the_daily_dispatch&ifp=0
It is no surprise to anyone following the iron ore industry that the price of this sturdy rock has suffered severe declines lately, falling from about $135 a ton in June to well below $90 now, with articles starting to crop up with analysts suggesting 2013 prices of $75 and even $50. I think this is far too bearish and I am anticipating a return to a spot pricing regime of between $120 and $150 by the end of the year.
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China just dropped another trillion yuan into infrastructure investments within the last two days. This includes 25 urban rail projects, 13 highway construction projects, and 10 municipal service projects. And for the first time in a while, the Chinese stock exchanges are jumping up considerably on the belief that there is more to come.
Between the Chinese stimulus measures and recent ECB bond purchase promises, international stocks that are exposed to iron ore are already jumping. Fortescue Metals Group, a highly leveraged essentially pure play Australian iron ore producer, was up +11.45% in trading earlier today after a recent vicious plunge in the stock price and the departures of multiple senior executives. Less leveraged and lower cost producers have risen as well, if a bit less.
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