Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

Thanks Cash and Airedale. Cash regarding the relationship between fundamentals and cycles, I see that fundamentals can amplify cycles. Examples include the way the market flattened into the 20-week low and rolled out of the 2.5-week low into the 5-week low. So looking at the current configuration of broader market cycles, I see the price of oil being a significant catalyst for a potential shift in sigma el. If the price of oil settles and/or falls from here, we could see much more stable market action with a decent rally out of the 5-week low. If the price of oil climbs toward the $80 mark, the market will almost certaintly take on a much darker tone. I would anticipate the market falling out of the 5-week low the way it fell out of the 2.5-week low. So, same cycles but with very different possibilities.

You're right, though, as Hurst advocates, we do not speculate on fundamentals. We don't even speculate based on cycles. For example, the 5-week low should complete any day now, but no one here can say with any certainty whether the market will rally out of that low to the summer highs or not. We draw our lines in the sand, interpret the signal, and then take positions.

Just making notes to myself here.

BB