Saturday, September 01, 2012 3:31:14 PM
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Intel: Argus Cuts Q3, Year View on Euro Weakness, Ultrabook Slowness
By Tiernan Ray
Argus Research’s Jim Kelleher this morning joins the discussion this week on whether Intel (INTC) will meet this quarter’s expectations on the Street. The current consensus is $14.25 billion and 60 cents per share in profit.
Kelleher, who has a Buy rating on Intel and a $34 price target, thinks Intel will report just under the midpoint of its forecast range for $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, or slightly less than $14.2 billion.
Kelleher has reduced his estimates after concluding that the company is contending with economic pressures, as well as the slow ramp of “ultrabook” computers it has been endorsing, and the slow development of tablets based on Microsoft‘s (MSFT) Windows:
Intel may deliver calendar 3Q12 revenue toward the low end of guidance, in our view, based on Persistent macro-economic headwinds buffeting the global economy and particularly Europe. In addition to weaker revenue, Intel could see a less-favorable CPU mix, based on signs that the Ultrabook – which uses some of Intel’s highest-end PC processors – has not really caught on yet. We expect Intel’s overall volumes to remain reasonably good, based on emerging economy demand; but we expect the Ultrabook ramp to be slower in emerging economies compared with mature nations. Thus, Intel’s emerging economy mix is likely to remain below company margins. In addition to economic headwinds and competitive pressures from tablets, Ultrabook is being impacted by its lack of alignment with the Windows 8 launch, which will not take place until October 2012. Based on past precedent, Windows 8 will likely ramp slowly, with slightly better early uptake by consumers; enterprise buying of PCs with Windows 8 will likely be pushed into 2013.
Kelleher also cut his year EPS view to $2.40 per share from $2.52 previously, on a non-GAAP basis, given the same concerns.
Shares of Intel this morning are up 57 cents, or 2.4%, at $24.84.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/08/31/intel-argus-cuts-q3-year-view-on-euro-weakness-ultrabook-slowness/
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