I wonder whether Intel would also survive better in the event of an economic slowdown which would weaken consumer demand for desktops? (I do understand the argument that Intel's cost structure is less well able to sustain lower prices than AMD's in an economic slowdown. But I'm not convinced. Intel has no debt and lots of cash. AMD has no free-cash and lots of debt).
Me...
That's not the way it works. Your right about INTC not being under any threat due to its' large cash hoard, but long before INTC faces liquidity problems the stockholders/BOD will start asking lots of very uncomfortable questions of INTC management. These questions will result in multiple reorganizations and management changes that will cause INTC all sorts of other problems while it sorts thing out.
Personally, I expect to see cracks turning into fissures about the time AMD takes 25% market share. Up to now AMD has essentially been playing a defensive game. Mainly because of capacity restrictions AMD has been relegated to just retaining existing market share in an expanding market. Next year the flood gates open and AMD goes into full court press, 24/7. That's when INTC is going to feel the real pain of AMD's boot up its' ass.
One thing I haven't seen talked about is the bear trap Hector has set for INTC. The timing of the suit does seem odd unless you think about it in a wider context. After all why not 2 years or even 5 years ago? It isn't like INTC just started these dirty tricks, this stuff has been going on ever since Hector was a pup. The Athlon debut just resulted in INTC flaunting its' arrogance and contempt of AMD in an out of control way.
To me the suit was initiated because of the expected settlement date, late 06. This date just happens to coincide with the time when fab36 will be reaching full 65nm capacity. What I expect from the settlement is an award of at least $2B to AMD and a ruling that INTC can no longer give kickbacks based on customers restricting AMD purchases. Outside of this I don't expect the courts to specify exactly what INTC has to do so I expect a lot of confusion at INTC marketing while the lawyers figure it out. Combine the money AMD gets, the confusion INTC marketing is under, the general revulsion the consumer will feel at the publication of INTC's dirty tricks, the superiority of AMD's products and the loss of sales the INTC only OEMs are going to be feeling and you have a situation that could lead to explosive sales gains at AMD late next year.
