NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[Puffer]

Many a drug that works in vitro, or in a rat, doesn't work in humans.

True, but I'm not sensing that you are understanding the difference in the way this treatment works. Most drugs fail because they alter cell function in some undesirable way while Nanoviricides work in the blood with no effect on cell function. So it is logical to assume the odds of toxicity in humans go way down.

Anyone familiar with the pitfalls of human testing and the capriciousness of the FDA is well aware that is far from a sure bet.

Fortunately we are not dependent solely on the capriciousness of the FDA for success.

I would say that the chances that NNVC will either go bankrupt within 3 years or be forced to issue large numbers of new shares at a very unfavorable price (diluting us to the point where they may as well have gone bankrupt) is much closer to 1 in 3 than 1 in a billion.

With clinical trials expected in Australia next year,the company's fate will rest on whether or not the treatment works in humans not on their ability to raise capital. Diwan's on the hook for about $10M, I'd say he is fairly confident.