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Assessing WiMAX Possibilities
By Johnson, Emmy

Fixed versions are about to deploy, while mobile specs are nearly complete.

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To many people, WiMAX already means portable wireless broadband service-sort of a bigger, better Wi-Fi. There's an element of truth in that characterization, because WiMAX (short for Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access, and the nickname for the IEEE's 802.16 metropolitan wireless standards), will be able to reach farther and achieve higher throughputs than Wi-Fi (for Wireless Fidelity, the nickname for the IEEE's 802.11 wireless LAN specifications).

But certified WiMAX components, products and networks aren't here yet, and the portable version is a year or two behind the fixed version. Fixed WiMAX, officially known as 802.16-2004, was ratified last year by the IEEE, and certification is getting under way. The WiMAX Forum, a vendor coalition devoted to boosting 802.16's prospects, will begin certifying radios in the 3.5 GHz frequency-a choice driven by global market considerations-in 3Q05, with deployments of certified gear beginning early in 2006. Certification for radios serving other frequencies-including the unlicensed 5.8 GHz and the licensed 2.5 GHz, both more applicable than 3.5GHz in North American markets-will follow in the first half of 2006.

For mobile WiMAX, officially 802.16e, carriers and consumers could be waiting until 2007 or longer for certified equipment. The IEEE expects to ratify the 802.16e standard by the end of 2005, with chips coming to market in 2006, certification beginning late 2006 and commercial production in 2007. We expect 2008 to be the first year for significant commercial deployments. It is likely that first- generation 802.16e equipment will be portable, with mobility following in subsequent generations. (Mobile means being able to stay connected as you move about, from one cell to another, at a relatively high rate of speed.)

The Korean WiBro Standard, which is very similar to and will interoperate with 802.16e, is further along than 802.16e, with equipment expected for the Korean market in 2006. Meanwhile, carriers around the world are using additional high-speed wireless data options as well. These include the incremental 3G data additions, such as High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) and Evolution Data Only/Optimized (EV-DO), as well as higher-capacity versions of 802.11 (also see "Distance Limits to Rule Wireless for the Next Five Years," p. 54).

For example, both Sprint and Verizon Wireless are rolling out EV- DO-based services in "dozens" of cities, while Cingular Wireless plans to deploy HSDPA in "15 to 20" markets this year.

Pre-WiMAX Rollouts Begin

Carriers are hedging their bets partly to avoid tying themselves exclusively, or too soon, to just one of these technologies, and partly in response to the regulatory issues and spectrum allocation concerns that overhang the market. Many do not consider fixed WiMAX a disruptive technology, but they see portable-and even better, mobile-802.16e as the real killer technology.

The WiMAX Forum has set an aggressive timetable for the completion, testing and rollout of 802.16e, and most industry participants acknowledge the technical superiority of 802.16e's OFDM technology to the competing options, but the competing technologies are ahead in terms of development and deployment.

That said, trials with equipment based on precertified, fixed 802.16-2004 WiMAX are under way with carriers including Altitude Telecom in France and Iberbanda in Spain. Both operators are building networks using gear from Alvarion, with Iberbanda also using equipment from Aperto Networks. France Telecom also is trialing pre-WiMAX solutions using equipment from Redline, Aperto, and Alvarion for 3.5 GHz trials in three cities across France.

Most incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) in the U.S. are trialing pre-WiMAX gear, although few providers have made it public (see "BellSouth Launches Portable Wireless Broadband," p. 55.) In June, AT&T briefly announced a pre-WiMAX trial in Atlanta; and at the end of June, Sprint announced a joint technology trial with Motorola focusing on mobile pre-WiMAX that will last into 2006.

On a smaller scale, Clearwire, a company created by Craig McCaw and recently backed with funds from Intel, has been steadily rolling out WiMAX-like gear for commercial deployments across the U.S., using gear from another McCaw company, NextNet. Cities include Jacksonville FL, Midland, TX, Modesto, CA and St. Cloud, MN, among others.

Drivers and Drawbacks

Although WiMAX proponents clearly want to follow in Wi-Fi's footsteps, in terms of gaining visibility and consumer acceptance for WiMAX, they don't want the rapid declines in margins that are typically associated with mass-market commercialization.

Off-the-shelf WiMAX-compliant ASICs have been available since mid 2005, and were pending certification in August. These chips will help radio vendors quickly drive down the price of WiMAX CPE and, to a lesser extent, operator base stations. Off-the-shelf, interoperable ASICs also will reduce operator risk and let operators choose among multiple CPE suppliers.

These developments will help make WiMAX equipment more affordable and the ROI much quicker for carriers offering WiMAX services. Low- priced portability and, eventually, mobility will drive customer demand. We believe WiMAX CPE prices, especially integrated devices with smaller form factors, could fall below $100 within the next five years.

Intel has led the way, in terms of WiMAX marketing, and has put wireless broadband on the map. Intel hopes that its WiMAX platform, based on the PRO/Wireless 5116 SoC (once known as its Rosedale chip) will mimic its very successful mobile Wi-Fi platform, built on the Centrino chip.

Other chip players active in driving WiMAX technical developments include Fujitsu, Sequans Communications, PicoChip and Wavesat, among others. Fujitsu has developed a Statement of Concept (SoC) based on Wi-LAN's OFDM WiMAX technology, and launched a single-chip solution integrating the PHY and MAC in April 2005.

Base station prices probably will not fall as quickly as those of CPE, for several reasons. Equipment suppliers will have to meet carrier standards (e.g., NEBS) and additional hardware, software and integration will be required to support mobility and hand-off features. As the number of WiMAX subscribers increases in a given coverage area, carriers will need to add sectors to their existing base station equipment to support them. We believe the larger margins associated with WiMAX base station equipment explain why heavy hitters like Alcatel and Siemens have stepped into the WiMAX market.

One way for vendors to streamline wireless integration is to develop hand-off and unified management capabilities for the different technologies. Already the IEEE standard includes a roadmap that combines WiMAX and WiFi into one seamless system-but imagine if base stations, platforms or towers could host multiple types of radios and manage handoffs among the different media. Then operators could select 3G, HSDPA, WiMAX, Wi-Fi, GSM and other wireless platforms based on capacity requirements and services for their customers, while sharing elements of the network infrastructure.

For example, in urban areas or business parks, higher-capacity technologies like WiMAX might be deployed, and as the user moves toward the edge of town, they would be seamlessly switched over to a 3G or GSM network. Motorola may be headed this direction as its Canopy line of wireless broadband gear is evolving to comply with the WiMAX standard. Furthermore, with the recent corporate reorganization, Canopy is now part of Motorola's Networking Division- the same division that offers CDMA and GSM solutions.

With the large, traditional carrier suppliers like Siemens, Alcatel, Ericsson and Lucent entering the market, vendor consolidation will surely follow. For example, we fully expect Cisco to enter the space through acquisition. However, being burned by wireless broadband once, they may wait until further assurance of success emerges. Once this happens, we believe they will acquire, in true Cisco fashion, one of the top players.

Not The Only Game In Town

Among the wireless broadband startups, a handful have already arrived where WiMAX hopes to be in five years. Companies like Flarion, IPWireless, ArrayComm, and Navini have been shipping technology that offers WiMAX-type capacity and reach today with the advantage of portability and in some cases mobility.

The catch? They are mostly proprietary, although IPWireless and Navini are based on Qualcomm's CDMA technology, with Navini promising an upgrade path to WiMAX 802.16e. Cellular equipment manufacturers such as Alcatel, Nokia, Ericsson, Lucent and Siemens have joined the game, exploring ways to offer some type of nomadic or mobile broadband Internet access.

Nextel's very public 1.9 GHz trial with Flarion in 2004 in Raleigh, NC, appeared to be a success on all fronts, with Nextel representatives joking at the recent WCA conference in Washington, DC that the users in the trial are staging a small revolt now that their equipment is being taken away and the network is being shut down. Despite Nextel's rave reviews on the trial and an investment in Flarion, Nextel pulled the plug shortly af\ter its announced merger with Sprint in December 2004.

Other trials using Flarion include Aloha Networks in the 700 MHz band in Arizona and Cellular One in Amarillo, TX in 1.9 GHz.

Following its trial of Flarion in June, Nextel announced a trial with IPWireless, a CDMA TDD based technology in its 2.5 GHz spectrum in the Washington DC area, including the surrounding cities of Arlington, VA; Alexandria, VA; Reston, VA and Bethesda, MD. The trial is scheduled to start in 3Q05 and will run for at least six months. The Sprint/Nextel merger creates a nationwide swath of 2.5 GHz spectrum that is ideal for nomadic or mobile broadband.

In addition, BellSouth also is jumping into the game. After years of trialing Navini's gear, BellSouth will commercially launch a 2.6 GHz network in August 2005, rolling out its "FastAccess" portable service in Athens, GA (see "BellSouth Launches Portable Wireless Broadband".)

Conclusion

Everyone lauds the concept of portable wireless broadband, with its newer generation of lowercost, more intelligent technology, its wide industry support, and standards such as WiMAX. Nevertheless, there is still an element of uncertainty. The technology has been hyped excessively, and it remains to be seen if, when and how the projected timelines can be met, and whether the networks can scale as promised. However, we are betting on its success and see the global market for WiMAX exceeding $1 billion in five years

Companies Mentioned In This Article

Alcatel (www.alcatel.com)

Aloha Networks (www.alohanet.com)

Altitude Telecom (www.altitudetelecom.fr)

Alvarion (www.alvarion.com)

Aperto Networks (www.apertonet.com)

ArrayComm (www.arraycomm.com)

AT&T (www.att.com)

BellSouth (www.bellsouth.com)

Cellular One Amarillo (www.cell1amarillo.net)

Cingular Wireless (www.cingular.com)

Cisco Systems (www.cisco.com)

Clearwire (www.clearwire.com)

Ericsson (www.ericsson.com)

Flarion Technologies (www.flarion.com)

Fujitsu (www.fujitsu.com)

Iberbanda (www.iberbanda.es)

Intel (www.intel.com)

IP Wireless (www.ipwireless.com)

Lucent (www.lucent.com)

Motorola (www.motorola.com)

Navini Networks (www.navini.com)

Nextel (www.nextel.com)

NextNet (www.nextnetwireless.com)

Nokia (www.nokia.com)

PicoChip (www.picochip.com)

Qualcomm (www.qualcomm.com)

Redline Communications (www.redlinecommunications.com)

Sequans Communications (www.sequans.com)

Siemens (www.siemens.com)

Sprint (www.sprint.com)

Unwired (www.unwired.com.au)

Wavesat (www.wavesat.com)

WiMAX Forum (www.wimaxforum.org)

Distance Limits To Rule Wireless For The Next Five Years

FIGURE A Five-Year View Of Wireless Data Standards

Wireless technologies historically have been crafted to perform voice or data (not both), at specific frequencies over specific distances. For the next five years, we believe this will continue, with TDM dominating cellular voice, while Wi-Fi will be used for LAN data and WiMAX for fixed broadband data access, with gradual growth of WiMAX for carrier IP backhaul and mobile/portable IP broadband for consumer portable data downloads. During this same time, 3G will start to roll out, offering services that include both voice and high-speed data downloads that do not require broadband capacity.

Figure A focuses on wireless data services, from the personal area network (PAN) to the wide area network (WAN), because mixed voice and data devices still do not perform as well at either task as the devices meant for each. Also, there are still a number of technical issues with voice over IP (VOIP) on wireless.

Only when VOIP truly becomes integrated into the common carrier networks, at scale, will we also begin to see seamless wireless voice and data technologieS

BellSouth Launches Portable Wireless Broadband

With the launch of its FastAccess portable service in Athens, GA, BellSouth becomes the first ILEC to commercially roll out wireless broadband technology in the U.S. since newer-generation-non-line-of- sight (NLOS) technology has become available. BellSouth is the spectrum holder of 2.3 GHz and 2.5/2.6 GHz licenses across the Southeast, and plans subsequent rollouts in Florida.

The service is scheduled to begin in Athens this month, targeting the college town's nomadic population of students. BellSouth has found that many students do not sign up for telephone service, effectively eliminating these students from the DSL market. By offering wireless service that can follow students from apartment to apartment, BellSouth believes that they have hit upon a strategic plan of capturing this highly mobile and technology savvy demographic.

Subscribers will even be able to suspend service for up to three months (e.g., over summer breaks), without incurring fees. Prices will be comparable to DSL, with two different service levels available. Speeds range from 1.5 Mbps down/384 kbps up to 384 kbps down/128 kbps up. Subscribers will receive a plug-and-play modem in the mail within three days of order.

BellSouth is not targeting fully mobile data applications, leaving that to its Cingular affiliate; however, the value-add of nomadic or portable data is very appealing, and equipment prices are reaching a point that creates a compelling business case.

Although Navini, BellSouth's supplier, does offer a PCMCIA card, BellSouth is opting for a standalone modem for optimum range and capacity. Unwired, an Australian service operator, has been offering wireless data services in the Sydney area for the last year using Navini gear, and has been pleasantly surprised by the traction of wireless broadband, even among subscribers that have a choice between DSL and wireless broadband. BellSouth hopes to see the same reception from the folks in the Athens area

Other high-speed wireless solutions, like EV-DO and HSDPA, are ahead of WIMAX in development and in deployment

Emmy Johnson is founder and principal analyst at the wireless research firm Sky Light Research. She can be contacted at Emmy@SkyLightResearch. com.

Copyright Business Communications Review Sep 2005



Source: Business Communications Review