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Tuesday, August 28, 2012 11:59:38 AM
Your post prompts me to comment on something that has been spurring me to add more and more PPHM to my portfolio over the past few weeks. The potential debt financing is an under-appreciated, bullish, inflection point in my assessment -- assuming, of course, they pull it off. It's tantamount in my mind to back-door, skin-in-the-game for PPHM management/BOD. I have been waiting and waiting for this point, and that's what I see now:
Lenders (even secured ones, like those in discussion with PPHM) do not "lend" unless they see a clear path to repayment at maturity. Borrowers (even newbies like PPHM) do not "borrow" from secured creditors unless they, similarly, see a clear path to repayment at maturity; otherwise, the equity holders get wiped out. Management/BOD are equity holders via their options. The safe, rational path for them would be to torture the public shareholders with more ATM. That's not what they are doing. To me, they are saying the upside is now big enough for them not to take the safe path. I have been waiting for this. It's consistent with the bullish "data" that everyone is correctly focused on. Another way to articulate my point is that the company's financing plan is jibing with the data, and that's bullish.
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