Last warning?
Here are some of my favorite overboard statements:
China has a mighty strategic rear, i.e., Russia, whose leaders firmly support any PLA action aimed at expansion and confrontation with the US. . . . China and Russia intend to sign a Treaty On Friendship and Cooperation, and will formalize their strategic-military alliance. . . . . This particularly means unconditional support of China by the Russian side -- with all resources available -- in the case of a Sino-US military conflict.
Hehe. Russia is pragmatically "making peace" with China to ensure it is not invaded and overrun by the biggest threat to its independence as a nation, by its longest standing and most feared enemy (China). But to infer that this means Russia's going to hand over its weapons and technology to its biggest enemy is just plain silly. And then to suggest that Russia would somehow overtly support China in any sort of conflict with the only remaining world superpower, and its largest supplier of foreign aid is delusional. (Russian leaders stay in office these days, in no small part on the back of American foreign aid, not treaties signed with China). I especially liked the characterization of Russia as "a mighty strategic rear." That would be the same Russia who missiles are being taken apart and sold for scrap value, whose vessels are in such a state of disrepair they rarely leave port for fear of disaster like what struck the Kirsk sub, and whose military is in tatters -- the part of it that hasn't walked off because it hasn't been paid in months?
"Jiang Zemin received an assurance from Putin that -- in case of a serious crisis around Taiwan, or any other crisis related to direct conflict between Chinese and US forces -- a significant part of the Russian Pacific Fleet will "block the way of the US Navy."
Hehe. They couldn't get a significant part of the Russian Pacific Fleet fueled and out of port, much less block the way of the U.S. Navy.
"Chinese leaders are especially counting on large-scale direct Russian military assistance, which could include even the actions of Russian strategic aircraft."
Another funny one. What jets they could manage to get airborne would probably have combat kill ratios not much different than the Gulf War skirmishes. 48 hours and the ones that hadn't been shot out of the sky would refuse to take off.
China has the potential to one day become a superpower. It is nowhere near one now and could not be for many years. While the focus of our strategic military planning will no doubt shift more and more toward that theater in coming years, it will be gradual and proportional to the growth and sophistication of the Chinese military capabilities.
The notion of China declaring or provoking war at any time in the next decade is highly unlikely. Smart leaders don't start wars they have no prayer of winning, particularly against countries that hold the key to their future economic advancement. Engaging in war with the U.S. or an ally of the U.S. brings all of NATO into play as well.
Expect China to build its military forces to establish psychological superiority in the region, and build up its national pride. Expect China to test the limits to which it can reach beyond its boundaries, until it finds a definitive boundary. Expect Chinese leaders to bluster in order to score political points at home and augure their own pride.
But let's not kid ourselves. As China tests to see if we are resolute in our pledge to support Taiwan in armed conflict, it will just as surely halt at the point where it is equally certain of our resolution and willingness to engage. They'll take what they can get without going to war, and that's it.
No chance Chinese political (or military) leaders would provoke an armed conflict in which they would go home humiliated and decisive losers.
Not to mention the fact that it would set them back substantially to have to rebuild all the tactical weapons, aircraft, ships, subs, and command and control hardware that we'd vaporize in the conflict.
It's Kruschev in Cuba all over again, only far less threatening. It's just a test. We'll pass. Taiwan will be fine.
Regards,
ECM1
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