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Sunday, August 26, 2012 3:39:55 AM
Your story only tells one side of the coin but you also need to read the other side of it , I am a neutral share holder and you need to read both sides if the coin and as you had met Cynthia you also need to understand what Claude and Rajiv have to say(though they are the ones to be blamed for the mess we are in)
When the year end filings are filed you should clearly read all the financings raised by the old management and read the names of all the lenders who had given short term debt to the company via convertible debts,now the old management brought in cynthia since she had "wall street experience" and they though she could bring in real capital to the company
But in fact when you read the filings you will possibly note that all these financings were done by selling stock at heavy discounts to the market price and the old management clearly says all these introductions were Cynthia's
So if she has to bring in future financings through such contacts we will have a o/s of possibly 2 bio shares and surely a reverse spirit soon
So the onus should not be on the old management it should be on Cynthia as well for destroying the share holders wealth
From what I hear is the shrewd Malaysians are keeping their fingers crossed,they are making smart moves at this time using Cynthia till all the mess gets cleared and we become fully current,and once we are current they might dump Cynthia to bring in a new chairman and move Michelle from alpha to US or may be keep Michelle in alpha and bring in a new CEO and CFO
.
But all said and done though cynthia might have made mistakes in bringing cheap street financing which has destroyed the PPS by continuos dilution(that's the reason we are not moving up) because the convertible guys might be sitting on the ask,one should give credit to her in at least getting rid of Rajiv and Claude as they were latches and could have sucked more till bankruptcy ,but she needs to prove that she really has true "wall street experience" by showing to close at least one real funding
In any case what I hear the malaysians as said may not need her as once we are current I feel they might infuse their own capital
The other interesting development which you have quoted is ,well you need to understand that the phase II has taken place long back as it was intas who had infused 4 mio USD in the first year in 2009 for the same reasons and they continued that in 2010-11 ,so the credit should only go to intas only and not to Cynthia,Rajiv or Claude
Now intas (read Indian stories from SEC) they have been trying to raise 100 mio for last two years but have not been successful,but they know if the phase III which is a very expensive exercise to get at least tested through 1000 patients but if gets successful this could be a blockbuster and thankfully what I hear is the tests have been extremely positive ,so they will put in all the funds to get that through possibly as the margins are very high and a huge market out there,so forget spectrum thus could be a much bigger business
But then they will try to get a exclusivity for the same assuming why should they give the patent to viropro since they are just % share holder and in minority,so why give that benefit to alpha
So will then they go for a buyout of alpha ? Quite possible alpha is in bad shape and if some one willing to throw a hat they will surely sell
One thing is for sure this we are in for a big ride any way which it happens,my contacts say short them possible target .25 and $2 possibly in next 12 months
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