Aug. 11: Will Ryan Pick Move the Polls? By NATE SILVER
We’ll be hitting few different topics in this polling update, most of them related to Mitt Romney’s selection of Representative Paul D. Ryan as his running mate.
I’ll look at the the effects that Mr. Ryan could have in Wisconsin specifically. And I’ll describe the short-term effect that Mr. Ryan could have on Mr. Romney’s national standing — vice presidential announcements often produce temporary but discernible bounces in their ticket’s polling numbers. (The more interesting question, of course — and the hardest to predict — is what impact Mr. Ryan will have on the race in the long run. You can find my thoughts on that in the article we posted earlier on Saturday.)
But first, time for Saturday’s regularly scheduled look at the latest polls.
Saturday’s Polls
One new national poll was published on Saturday, although it was conducted prior to Mr. Romney’s selection of Mr. Ryan. That poll, from the firm TIPP for The Christian Science Monitor and Investor’s Business Daily, gave Barack Obama a 7-point lead over Mitt Romney in the national race.
Long-time readers may remember that I am not terribly fond of this polling firm — their numbers, for whatever reason, have tended to be pretty volatile in past elections — but this is nevertheless the latest in a series of national polls showing good numbers for Mr. Obama. And as in some of those other national surveys, the trend-line is favorable for Mr. Obama in the TIPP poll, as their previous survey showed a 4-point lead for him.
The national tracking polls, also published on Saturday, haven’t been joining in the fun. The Gallup national tracker continues to show a tied race, and Rasmussen Reports puts Mr. Romney two points ahead — although Mr. Obama’s position was improved in their survey from Friday, when he trailed by four points.
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