The obvious positives from the CC ...
Obviously not many - just the usual for improving this and that. But ...
Two units left on the dock - one for payment timing and the other for a last minute demand for (I forgot the term) customer wanting to watch it run I think.
Add these in and we meet revenue expectations and probably knock a penny or two off the loss.
DSO has seen major improvement.
The biggest thing, in MHO, is that they have again returned to a focus on managing to cash flow. I feel strongly they had lost sight of this over the years. If they maintain this focus and continue improvement in all the usual areas and DSO, I think they'll come along smartly.
I almost had an attack when he mentioned focus on HEVs! Fortunately he clarified and mentioned buses.
My biggest concern is in areas beyond company control - the worldwide slowdown in GDP growth (or even possible GDP contraction in places like Europe). Austerity programs will hurt us. But the central banks are going to be injecting liquidity and that will help, in nominal terms (not real purchasing power though). If they overdo it, unwarranted U.S. dollar strengthening could make the product more expensive in foreign markets and also hurt us.
Well, that's my summation take-away - still waiting patiently before adding.
What I expect near-term is that the street will hammer share price and the shorts will be turning handsprings as they hit us harder. Look for below a dollar again.
It will take some concerted effort in the sales, news and PR front for this to be overcome, IMO.
I'm loading my rifle for this if it happens. Careful picking of price points and working the inflections will keep us in the money. Since 2007 I've taken a loss only once (much bigger than I would've liked) and my long-term belief in the technology and it's applications remains unshaken.
My faith in management has been severely tested, but redemption is possible (even likely?) if they've found religion (at The Church of Managing Cash) again.
We'll see what we see.
Austinetic materials and the new CFD turbine leading to the C250 and C370 should be a year or so out now. PCAR (Peterbuilt and Kenworth) should have their trucks running around the tracks now and results should come, if positive, sometime over the next 6-9 months. What happened with US 1? Will Wrightspeed come through? Will Designline revive enough to benefit us?
Stay tuned for the next installment of "As the Stomach Churns".
Bill
