Sunday, August 05, 2012 4:55:16 PM
For a year it has gone sideways with support at 1550 - bottom of its old upchannel. It is now well under the multi-year uptrend and has the highest volume by price since it was under 1200.
I could see it taking another crack at $1900, where I extrapolate the bottom of the old up-channel.
Catalysts: Euro maintenance, US Quantitative Easement "x", or China having slower growth rates. Note that Gold was down when BRICs and China were down, so I am not sure there really is any further flight of foreign capaital from China to gold, but there might be extradition of wealth from RMB to gold.
Doubts: Instead of banging repeatedly into resistance, it has skimmed repeatedly along thin ice. It acts like the supposed market manipulators have a price (1550) they are willing to sell at and that when they are done we'll here what a bad investment (tech stocks, real estate, oil...) gold was at these prices and that it was just another "tulip craze".
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