Good sentiment, Frank - honestly stated, and with modesty in the face of an unknown. BK plays are always risky because so much goes on behind the scenes with lawyers, judges, and the principle players - the DIP, creditors, bond and debt-holders, and unions. Here are some things that might help to level the playing field for you:
1. One cannot, IMO, treat this stock as it is now as an "investment". So long as it is in BK, the more realistic perspective is to see it as a "trading" stock.
2. If you were holding Pre-BK as a much higher pps, you can either a) hold and gamble that equity will emerge intact and value of yr shares will recover; b) sell and recover whatever you can and move on to another play; or c) average down so that while the stock is in BK, you can bring your pps holdings down enough to realize some gain trading it during its spikes and dips through BK.
3. The stock will move on news; silence brings the pps down.
4. The BKs that I have been involved in were very lengthy processes. I've not been in one which saw settlement/resolution in under a year. So if you aim to try to average down in order to trade, it would be my opinion that you have a window of at least 6 months to try to trade.
5. BK proceedings - legal wranglings, court proceedings, PORs - are all unpredictable in terms of time and outcome. Anyone who says with any force of conviction that either equity WILL survive beyond BK, or that she's gonna run to 1-2 dollars while in BK, is at best whistling in the dark.
6. Whatever coin retail might be able to make, either by trading, or by surviving the exit, is a pittance compared to the millions the lawyers will be making over the course of negotiating and litigating.
7. If you are the impatient sort, or have a low tolerance for ambiguity, this might not be the play for you.
That being said, I was not a pre-BK shareholder. I am here because I believe that within the 6-9 month window of time, I can trade this stock for some profit. I could very well be mistaken, and so #8: I'm not in this with more than I can afford to lose.
Best of luck to you! AIMHO.
Dion
"Time, and patience."
-- General Kutuzov, Tolstoy's "War and Peace".
AI
