Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[DonShimoda]

Small data set aside, if the 6% number holds true then in just the U.S. this subset alone is a $1billion+ opportunity as it stands today, and, depending on the impact AP26113 has on survival rates, could be much larger.

There are 226,000 new case of lung cancer diagnosed in the US each year. Of these, 85%-90% are NSCLC. So, potentially 11,500 express ALK or both ALK and EGFR. Assuming AP26113 is able to achieve the same $9600/month pricing of crizotinib, then the potential market is $1.3 billion in the U.S. Furthermore, this does not factor in the positive impact the drug will likely have on overall survival rates (today the 5 year survival rate in NSCLC is around 15%).

On top of this, an additional 2% of patients are ROS1 which AP26113 also potently inhibits (see this years AACR Poster http://bit.ly/QxjMjb )
The ALK/ALK+EGFR/ROS1 could easily be a $2 billion dollar market in the US alone and that's not even considering whatever opportunity AP26113 has in the 10-15% of EGFR patients.