Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

How is MAKO’s going from 10 to 40 to 13 (the current price) “better” than MNTA’s going from 5 to 25 to 14? (I think you may need a better calculator.)

Because MAKO did it within the last year, how long did it take MNTA to go from 5 to 25 and back down again? It all has to have its proper context.

I denigrated no forum on TMF or anywhere else; rather, I replied to biotech jim’s accurate statement that “several thought [MAKO] was the next ISRG.”

It was a clear implication, lets not play with words, we know why you phrased it the way you did. Which is fine, but given the current state of MNTA, which has not worked out even close to anticipated, I took exception to it. Adn this is not saying that I thikn any of your analysis was prospectively wrong, as there is always the element of chance and the unknown at work. Your analysis was excellent on MNTA...doesn't always guarantee results.

Fine. On the TMF board in question, you referred to MAKO as “the next ISRG” on various occasions, so you were indeed one of the people biotech jim was talking about.

No, I believe I compared it to ISRG, and did not say it was the "next" ISRG, and have stated on multiple, multiple posts the differences. Such as ISRG simply became the new surgical tool of choice for an already existing procedure (prostectamies) whereas MAKO has to create a market for a whole new procedure (partial knee) that heretofore has not gained traction in over a decade, and is probably a greater challenge (plus no impotency component to sell like ISRG sold DaVinci). Quite the difference in that regard.

I also indicated that it would be easier to duplicate RIO than daVinci. Giving RIO a more precarious longer term competitive advantage. I also stated many other differences on many, many posts.

But yes, I did use ISRG as the marketing model for MAKO, as that is the model being used by the company, ISRG having plowed the road in regard, and for the most part, it happens to be successful. Procedure growth continues unabated, and so do unit sales, but unit sales are down year over year. Utilization per machine/per month hit a record this past quarter (but with unit sales, kind of anti-climactic). I also stated after the Q1s report, that "it was one of the ugliest quarterly reports I've ever seen."

So again, you simplify and try to belittle the forum as if we were just cheerleaders over there. That is not the case.

Over on TMF many questioned whether or not Teva would get FDA approval for enoxaparin, as an example...I was wrong myself, like the majority on this forum, I did not think it was coming, but it came.

I was very disappointed in MNTA when it cut its FoB deal. I cut out on MNTA not wanting to wait through the litigation, which so far has not gone its way.

With MAKO, they have hit what seems like the marketing chasm in technology adoption speak. And that is what we are following at the moment. Is the product hitting its wall, or is it simply a move to the next level of buyer that MAKO has failed to adequately crack (and if so, can they crack it - given the current valuation).

And btw/ for the record, yes, I did buy into MNTA in the $6s I believe, so yes, that would still be profitable for me. But not the $20s I purchased after lovenox, so mixed bag there for me on MNTA.

But all in all, if one limits themselves to the last 12 months or so (August , 2011 I believe is when I brought it up on TMF), MAKO is by far the better investment. I sold my MAKO in the $20s and not at $40 - I thought $20s was time to get out, but at $13 and change worth looking back into again. As for MNTA, as I stated long ago, it is now a complete copaxone story...didn't help the latest clinical data showing no delay to disability for copaxone patients...that will speed patients on to other drugs, further decreasing the potential market by 2015 when MNTA finally gets a cut of it.

And I will stop with the attitude now as I got it out of my system :) Feels better.

Thank you Dew. I will get back to viewing MAKO and MNTA from their current cirumstances. EXEL has been my primary hold of interest to this forum, and not my finest hour, butI have continued to hold it, and it is making a nice recovery in a long-term hold perspective. Bought between $5 and $7.50 so mixed bag there so far, but coming back. As valuation changes so may my perspective of it. But I do like holding a cancer drug that we know works. It is all the details yes...

Tinker