Good digging Olmsted, I've been so busy at the day job to respond in my own backwards way as usual. I tend to look at worst-case scenarios, and so let's say what you found is correct. I see this as a free call option on all the lawsuits. In an odd way it reminded me of my old Yahoo! investment when that too was a free call option, on their American operations. But I digress....
$80 cash / per share ---- so 100% of where I've bought
Let's use say $10 MM a year for cash burn so that's $33 / share a year there.
I'll use another 2 years of court...since as Chevy pointed out hopefully settlements speed up a tiny bit.
So,that brings us down to $14 / share after a few years. Now for the court proceedings, which I like to back into.
If we can agree the total amount is for about $1.95 Billion then we can calculate some scenarios.
@ 1% recovery = $65 / share + $14 = $79
@ 2% recovery = $130 / share + $14 = $144
@ 5% recovery = $325 / share + $14 = $339
@ 10% recovery = $650 / share + $14 = $664
I could go on but I think you see my investment theory. Usually, I search for 2 - 4 X on my investments. To get that and assuming your scenario is true...only about 2.5% of the total lawsuit amount is needed.... which seems extremely possible with what I've read in EI and Chevy's DD. I like the odds and that's why I've played the risk/reward at these levels.
No legalese in just showing that I make bets where I see good risk/rewards.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
