Thanks FTM,
We are on the same wavelength.
In regard to Thurly post 82458:
I think you and I are close on the "numerator" of the ratio. But there is another possibility which is on the "denominator". Because of cryptic PPHM communication on the control arm having reached MOS in <6 months, parsing the syntax-- (one day PPHM PR will hopefully get clear enough that we don't have to parse anything)-- one could work with a range of 5.1-5.9 months to MOS for the control arm. Changes in the denominator of the treatment/control ratio might also favor my opinion/guesstimate on the ratio being a minimum of (2.4).
I also notice a lot of chatter/worry (another red herring??) that PPHM may in some way be holding back on the MOS release of the treatment arm. I think this is low probability. When they get there they will in all probability release the news. This is too highly awaited a material fact to play around with too long. PPHM does not want to commit any errors of disclosure so close to a major change in possible valuations. Remember, one of the knocks on PPHM is that they are chaired by a lawyer.
Also, mitigating the timing of the release of MOS news is the fact there are two treatment arms. Since the higher dosage level was outperforming the lower dosage treatment arm by modest amounts in primary releases of ORR and PFS there is a distinct possibility that it might also outperform re MOS. There is the possibility that it might outperform by > 1 month which would put it outside a "collating margin". Therefore, if the delta between the two treatment arms is > 1 month there is a decent possibility that shareholders could get two MOS announcements. Given this possibility and since there has been no MOS announcement for the lower dosage treatment arm, I suggest we are still counting at least on the higher dosage.
This is clearly IMO only
Best Regards,
RRdog
