Of new Bull Markets and Such </B>
There is a lot of talk out there that this time, we have seen "The Bottom". Only time will tell but people sure are swimming uptream trying to get on the boat...just be careful that when they all show up it doesnt sink that boat.
Over the Easter Holiday I am sure a good number of people will be together with family and they will talk about the market. If they all collectively deside that they need to catch the boat before it pulls out of port we could end up with a pretty strong day tomorrow, and maybe a very strong week.
A few things though that I do feel compelled to warn you of. First is that this has been for the most part more of a V bottom than a basing one. Remeber ZRAN which fell off the roof and needed to rest..the markets are the same. They need a period of cooling off and healing. That period occurs by basing action. Aside from not having built a strong base as a foundation for our rally, we are not seeing "new names" This is very important. The names of the last bull market (CSCO, CIEN, JNPR, JDSU, DELL..you know the names, I will spare you the long list) will not give life to a new Bull Market. And the old one will not come back..its dead. Look for companies with exciting new products that have superior earnings growth and are breaking out of solid bases..those will be the stocks which give life to the New Bull...Ive been looking all weekend and dont see much that makes me wet my pants. The VIX really sank on Thursday and is looking stretched. The Average Trin close over the last several days on the NYSE also suggests we are getting overbought and due for some selling...or at least a period of rest. Just keep in mind that like oversold, overbought can and does get more overbought. Finally, I just dont think this is "the bottom" and thats what really counts right <GG>. If you look at the longer term charts (say quarterly and yearly...WOW) we are still long term overbought. We could rally 30 to 40% from the lows and still be in a strong bear market. When I started trading it was in a bear market in Grain. Bear markets are subject to sharp rallies that make everyone hopefull, then they turn diabolical and head back down.
Brandon
