TRADING 04 FUTURES

[TREND1]

monday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -9

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened slightly higher at SPX 1363. The SPX had closed at 1362 on friday. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 1361, rallied to 1366 - a new rally high, then began to pullback. At 10:00 Construction spending was reported higher: +0.9% vs +0.3%, but ISM manufacturing was reported in contraction mode: 49.7 vs 53.5. The market continued its pullback until about 11:00 when the SPX hit 1356, and then tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX made it back to 1366 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 18 ticks, Crude slid $1.25, Gold was off $1, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX rises at 1363 and 1313, with resistance now at 1372 and 1386. Short term momentum declined slightly from extremely overbought. Tomorrow, Factory orders at 10:00 then monthly Auto sales.

The market opened higher today, and made a new rally high at SPX 1366, before pulling back a moderate 10 points to SPX 1356. After that the market started to work its way back to the opening levels. The market is now at the highest level it has been since early June and is uptrending. SPX 1499 by year end? We shall see. A preliminary review of the worldwide indices now displays at least 65% in confirmed uptrends, and likely more after all the numbers are in. Considering there were no indices in confirmed uptrends just a week ago. The WROC buy signal, from two weeks before that, appears to be spot on again.

Short term support is now at the 1363 pivot, then SPX 1342/47. Overhead resistance would be at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum is remaining overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive from under SPX 1330 with the swing point now at 1340. Best to your trading in the this holiday week!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrending

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp