good article. "black box" GIS planning seldom works because the model is deterministic, and in each situation it encounters different problems to solve... and proposes to solve new situations it encounters with old canned answers. Sort of like using a computer model to see who will win the next election, it may be technically elegant but realistically off.
One of them is that when one weights the resources at risk, it always comes out that the wildland urban interface is the most critical. Which short changes the vast unoccupied expanses that need fire re-introduction... when one tries to compensate for this, it introduces bias.
Politics is almost always the problem in natural resource management. In the case of Colorado Springs, managers knew very well how to prevent what happened, but trying to get the "fuels plan" implemented is really tough because of the large number of people that object to the smoke from prescribed burning, and visual impact of canopy reduction, etc.
They invariably scream "timber interests are ruining my mountain" even if their is no timber harvest/thinning component. The public often views forests as a static thing, when in fact it is totally dynamic.
giving up a temporary piece of scenery status quo for fire security is tough to sell, as a huge wildfire is an abstraction to many people until it actually happens. Many "environmental activists" oppose any activity in the woods, and end up preserving habitat to death... which is sad because they spend so much money fighting NIMBY battles (until its time for us to go put the fires out for them). The vegetation communities in nearly all western forests developed under the selective pressure of fire, which has mostly been removed.. it can be mimicked on small scales, but the "no action" people are causing huge build-ups in much of our national forests. the accumulation of fuels is dynamic and is like holding one's finger over the end of a garden hose. you can hold it back for a little while, but as the pressure builds, it finally overcomes your finger and blasts out way more intensely than if you had just let the hose run freely. anyway, hope your day is going well.
