Value Microcaps Motherboard

[abh3vt]

R59, I agree with your general take. Production might impact the rate of liftings, but if they have some inventory that would take up the slack for a little while....

Earnings appear to be impacted by two things: the amount of liftings in any one quarter and the price of oil. Liftings are more a function of how much room Shell tankers have when they stop by the Gabon facility to pick up oil.

The reserves issue is probably the biggest problem. If delayed, then the long term upside suffers. Short-term, the Q3 number is expected to be good, and Q4 numbers should be decent as well, assuming oil prices don't fall too much (EGY has hedged 40% of its production, I believe). Unfortunately, the Q3 numbers were already expected, so their release might not help much......