Textbook shakeout continues
Investing and trading is not about certainty it is about calculating odds, payoffs, and placing your bet accordingly. The month is not over but barring some catalyst TECO is likely to close under 4 cents. That would be the first month out of 15 in a row where it didn't hold the level, or a 7% probability outcome.
Earlier this month I made a very vocal bet to anyone who was willing to take it, that the stock would close at or above 4 cents. Not a single person stepped up to the plate to put their money where their mouth is. I would like to make that bet again against any takers that July sees a 4 cent close or higher, put up or shut up.
It is obvious to me, however, that some larger traders are definitely working TECO over good at this point to shake out the weak hands. I've already documented the repeated bidwhacks and end of day paint jobs thoroughly. Nobody has brought conflicting evidence to the contrary. The shenanigans in the stock will continue until news breaks and not a moment sooner as far as I can tell.
All you need to control TECO at this point is several to half a dozen traders with 50,000 a piece to make sure that ask doesn't move upwards. How hard is that?
They are probably sitting their on instant messenger keeping each other appraised of when they are about to dump 50,000 shares into bid, or when a weak hand lets go, or when to make the next negative post on the message board, all the while laughing, and why shouldn't they? If I could get a few million or more shares of TECO at a cost average of about 3 cents, knowing that this thing should pop hard by the end of July, I would be laughing all the way to the bank.
Here's another thing about odds. In January, 1 PR about an oil discovery in Belize sent this stock from 4 cents to 13 cents practically overnight. Treaty has multiple wells being drilled and that will be drilled in the days and weeks to come, and it only takes 1 to send this stock back to the highs. By the end of July I am betting we get a close above 4 cents, and if you don't feel the same let's trade contact information and make a bet.
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