Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, have both argued correctly that the slowing global economy requires decisive action by political leaders.
Mr. Bernanke has come as close to pleading with Congress as a Fed chairman can, telling lawmakers on several occasions that the Fed alone cannot repair the economy and asking them for “help,” “support” and “collaboration.” That’s all Fed-speak for “more federal spending, now, please.”
Mr. Draghi, for his part, has sternly said, .. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18339334 .. “It is not right for monetary policy to fill other institutions’ lack of action,” a reference to the urgent need for Europe’s leaders to resolve the euro crisis.
But what if politicians refuse to act?
In the United States, legislative obstructionism is the approach of Republicans who do not want the economy to improve before Election Day. In Europe, a European Union summit meeting later this week will give leaders yet another chance to deliver on stimulus, banking reforms and political strategies to stabilize the euro zone. But the experience of the past two years suggests that they will do too little, too slowly.
Meanwhile, growth is faltering. The Fed now expects the United States economy to expand by 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent .. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20120620.pdf .. in 2012, down from its forecast of 3.5 percent a year ago. The European Central Bank’s economic forecast for the euro zone this year is -0.5 percent to 0.3 percent growth. And that’s being optimistic.
Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Draghi would clearly prefer to act in concert with politicians. But with the economy relapsing, more aggressive action is overdue. For the Fed, that means renewed quantitative easing, an attempt to lower long-term borrowing rates and spur demand by creating money with which to purchase bonds. To send the message that help will be provided as long as the economy remains weak, a bond-buying program or other support should be tied to specific goals for lower unemployment, higher inflation or stronger overall growth.
The European Central Bank can start with the obvious: cutting its benchmark interest rate below 1 percent, coupled with resurrecting its own moribund bond-buying program. The growth and inflation that could result from these measures would help to counteract the ills unleashed by excessive and premature fiscal austerity.
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